When Matthias Sammer won the Ballon d’Or in 1996, finishing ahead of Brazilian phenomenon Ronaldo, few could have imagined that the Bundesliga would still be waiting for its next winner 30 years later. German football has produced Champions League winners, World Cup champions and some extraordinary individual seasons since then, but football’s most prestigious individual award has continually gone elsewhere.

It was once very different. Gerd Müller won in 1970, Franz Beckenbauer in 1972 and 1976, Allan Simonsen in 1977, while Kevin Keegan won consecutive awards with Hamburg in 1978 and 1979. He remains the last Englishman playing in the Bundesliga to win the award. Karl-Heinz Rummenigge then won in 1980 and 1981 before Sammer eventually became the Bundesliga’s last winner 15 years later.

There have been painful near misses since. Franck Ribéry finished only third in 2013 despite Bayern completing a historic treble. The Ballon d’Or was not awarded in 2020, when Robert Lewandowski was widely considered the favourite after Bayern’s treble-winning season, before the Polish striker finished second behind Lionel Messi in 2021.

Now it could finally be Kane’s turn.

73 goals make Kane the man to beat

Current predictions make Harry Kane the overwhelming favourite for the 2026 Ballon d’Or. Sofascore’s model gives the Bayern striker a probability of more than 60%, comfortably ahead of Lamine Yamal at around 20% and Kylian Mbappé at 15%.

The numbers explain why. Across club and country, Kane has played 66 matches and scored an astonishing 73 goals, while adding eight assists. But focusing exclusively on his goals would undersell just how complete his season has been.

Kane averaged 1.26 key passes per game and created 29 big chances, numbers that underline his importance far beyond finishing attacks. His tendency to drop deeper allows Bayern’s wide players to attack the space he creates, while his passing regularly turns him from the team’s number nine into its creator. He also averaged 0.98 successful dribbles per game, adding another dimension to an already remarkably complete attacking profile.

His partnership with Michael Olise has been particularly important. Together, they formed one of the most dangerous attacking combinations in world football, with Kane equally capable of finishing moves himself or creating opportunities for the players around him.

There are shades of Cristiano Ronaldo’s most prolific seasons in Kane’s relentless goalscoring output, but perhaps the most impressive part of his campaign is that such extraordinary numbers have not come at the expense of his overall involvement. Seventy-three goals in 66 appearances make him an elite goalscorer. His creativity, link-up play and contribution outside the penalty area make his Ballon d’Or case considerably stronger.

The trophies and big-game performances followed

The argument that followed Kane for much of his career is also disappearing. He now has the trophies to accompany the numbers.

Bayern Munich won three trophies, completing the domestic set with the Bundesliga, DFB Cup and Supercup. The Champions League was the only major disappointment, although Bayern came remarkably close.

They reached the semi-finals before losing 6-5 on aggregate to the eventual champions, with the first leg producing one of the matches of the season. More importantly for Kane’s individual case, he scored in both semi-final matches.

For a player who has often been criticised for supposedly disappearing on the biggest occasions, it was an important answer. Kane did not disappear when Bayern needed him most. He delivered against the eventual European champions.

Six World Cup goals complete the case

Then came the World Cup.

Kane helped England finish third, scoring six goals and ending the tournament as its fifth-highest scorer. His performances added international success to a season already filled with individual records and domestic trophies.

Ballon d’Or voting has never been determined purely by statistics, and Bundesliga supporters know that better than most. Ribéry’s treble was not enough in 2013. Lewandowski never received the opportunity to win in 2020 and then narrowly lost a year later.

But Kane has almost everything a Ballon d’Or winner traditionally needs: extraordinary individual numbers, trophies, international success and defining performances on the biggest stages.

Thirty years after Sammer, the Bundesliga may finally have another winner.

And 47 years after Kevin Keegan, Harry Kane could become the next Englishman to win the Ballon d’Or while playing in Germany.