Palmeiras are through with a clean and controlled 1-0 over LDU in the CONMEBOL Libertadores quarterfinals at Nubank Parque. The hosts spent most of the night in command and got the single goal they needed in the first half. If you like your football explained by data, this one speaks clearly. Palmeiras owned the ball, racked up chances and forced LDU to defend deep for long spells.

Sofascore’s match center had Palmeiras at 61% possession and an xG of 2.91 to LDU’s 0.47, which is about as one-sided as knockout games get. The visitors stayed in it thanks largely to excellent goalkeeping and a busy back line, but the aggregate shot map tells the story: 28 attempts for Palmeiras against 6 for LDU, with 44 touches in the away penalty area. The home side’s average team Sofascore Rating was 7.42 compared to LDU’s 6.71.

Giay’s header makes the difference

The deciding moment arrived in the 26th minute. After Vitor Roque’s effort was pushed away, Agustín Giay reacted first and guided a header in from close range. It was listed as a regular goal and came with hefty probability behind it; Giay’s individual xG on the night was 0.9163 with the header itself graded high quality. The sequence captured Palmeiras’ early control: quick circulation, second balls won and presence in the box.

Up to the break the hosts led 1-0 and had already stacked favorable metrics. First-half possession was 63%, shots were 9-4 and shots on target 4-1. Palmeiras generated 1.24 xG before halftime to LDU’s 0.30 and won more duels (53%) as well. The trend continued later, though the scoreboard never changed. Giay finished with a 7.5 Sofascore Rating and a key role in the wing corridor, even if the night’s headline individual belonged to someone else.

Territory and volume: Palmeiras by the numbers

This was a territorial performance. Palmeiras attempted 470 passes to LDU’s 311 and completed 394 of them. They entered the final third 55 times (LDU 43) and completed 73% of their final-third actions. Abel Ferreira’s side also delivered steady service, landing 18 of 34 crosses at 53% accuracy. They kept LDU deep with 10 corner kicks to 1 and a 59% duel win rate, including 52 of 85 ground duels won.

The shooting spread underlines how assertive the hosts were around goal. Palmeiras fired 21 of their 28 shots from inside the box and hit the target 7 times. LDU managed just 6 shots all game and only 1 on target, a figure that pairs neatly with their 14 touches in the opposition box. Even on dribbles Palmeiras were comfortable, completing 13 of 19 (68%) against LDU’s 4 of 12 (33%). It was a one-goal scoreline built on multi-goal pressure.

LDU’s plan and Valle’s resistance

For LDU, the route to survival was clear: compress the penalty area and trust their keeper. Gonzalo Valle delivered a standout shift with 5 saves, 2 punches and a competition-grade 1.50 goals prevented. His 8.5 Sofascore Rating was the best among the visitors and a big reason Palmeiras didn’t put the tie to bed earlier. Around him, LDU’s defensive numbers stacked up: 30 clearances, 16 interceptions and 22 fouls to break rhythm.

The back three and wing-backs fought hard. Gian Franco Allala had 7 clearances and 4 blocks, Ricardo Adé added 9 clearances and 2 interceptions, and Marcelo Weigandt chipped in with 3 interceptions. Breakouts were limited. LDU completed just 16 of 48 long balls (33%) and produced 0.17 xG in the second half, despite a late wave of substitutions that brought on Alexander Alvarado, Sebastián González and Juan Rodríguez. Michael Estrada logged 3 shots and 0.27 xG, while José Carabalí arrived after the interval and missed LDU’s best look (0.14 xG). It was honest resistance, short on attacking bite.

MVP watch: Jhon Arias runs the show

Palmeiras’ creative engine was Jhon Arias, who earned a stellar 9.6 Sofascore Rating. The Colombian winger put on a crossing clinic with 8 accurate crosses from 10 and fed his teammates all night, finishing with 6 key passes and a team-leading 0.67 expected assists. His distribution was almost spotless at 44 of 45 completed passes, with 34 of those in the opposition half. The volume on the ball was elite too: 78 touches and 29 carries, producing 118 meters of total progression.

Arias mixed end product with work rate. He won 9 duels, recovered 6 balls and completed 2 tackles, while also attempting 4 shots and posting 0.31 xG. His delivery repeatedly stretched LDU’s last line and helped Palmeiras sustain pressure between corners and second phases. On a night when the collective dominance didn’t translate into a second goal, Arias’ consistency in every attacking phase set him apart.

Supporting cast steps up

There were plenty of strong Palmeiras notes behind Arias. José Manuel López posted an 8.4 Sofascore Rating with 5 key passes, 4 shots and robust hold-up play that kept defenders busy. Left wing-back Joaquín Piquerez added 4 key passes and 0.45 xA as service came from both flanks. Alexander Barboza (7.5) and Murilo (7.2) provided steady distribution out of the back and helped win the aerial battle 14-12.

Up front, Vitor Roque was lively across 79 minutes with 5 shots, 7 fouls won and 0.43 xG before leaving injured. His replacement Heittor flashed danger and 0.63 xG but missed the late big chance that would have sealed it. Captain Gustavo Gómez kept things tidy in duels, while Carlos Miguel wasn’t heavily worked, making 1 save but still logging 0.32 goals prevented thanks to solid positioning. All told, it was control with just enough cutting edge.

What the team stats say about the result

Add the totals up and the 1-0 sits on very firm ground. Palmeiras finished with 2.91 expected goals to LDU’s 0.47, out-shot them 28-6 and out-crossed them by more than three to one in volume. They completed more passes, won more duels and made far more touches in the penalty area. LDU, meanwhile, leaned into low-block defending, big clearances and a top-tier goalkeeping display to keep the tie alive for as long as possible.

From a coaching lens, the formations mapped closely to the stat lines. Palmeiras’ 3-4-2-1 gave them wing superiority and feeding lanes into the box, while LDU’s 3-4-1-2 spent long periods folding into a back five. On Sofascore, the hosts’ team average Rating of 7.42 versus 6.71 reflects that territorial tilt. Quarterfinal football often rewards control; here, Palmeiras had plenty, and Giay’s header made sure the numbers came with a score.

Player of the Match

By Sofascore Rating, Jhon Arias topped the match at 9.6. In the fan vote, Agustín Giay was the pick with 1748 of 3966 votes, ahead of Arias. The model and the crowd differed this time, but both choices came from a dominant Palmeiras display.